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Sun, Oct. 8th, 8:15 p.m.
Steelers vs Chargers
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mARTICHOKE
Predictions for Week 4: Steelers at Chargers
A STATEMENT GAME
Make Things Happen

Article by Hootie

Unlike Greg at the copier in the NFL Network commercial, I do not believe that “without LaDainian, the Chargers have nothing.” They have several offensive weapons and third year starting QB Phillip Rivers is turning into one of them. He is putting up Roethlisberger-like numbers (67.6% completion, 96.9 QB rating) while a beaten up Ben is still trying to find his feet underneath him.

Not that Ben is the only obstacle the Steelers face on offense. None of the receivers seem to be able to hold onto a ball thrown their way. I know that the Steelers are primarily a run offense, but last year the passing game was able to give them a surge when they needed it most. This year, that is not the case so far. Articles lately seem to focus on Ben and the receiver’s inability to get on the same page. Personally, I am going to say that this is because our quarterback isn’t back to the elite form he was in last year, particularly for the playoffs. I, too, am sick of hearing about the motorcycle accident. But let’s face facts… The man overcame a near death experience. That is not something you overcome in a few weeks. And unfortunately, it’s taking its toll on him out on the football field. This bye week couldn’t have come at a better time, in my opinion. Because we definitely have an uphill battle this week against a Chargers team that doesn’t look as if it dropped off much in production with their new leader replacing the ever-resurgent Drew Brees, whom I thought the Chargers made a mistake of letting go. Phillip Rivers seems to be shouldering the load pretty well so far. That is, until Sunday night when he faces a Pittsburgh team that’s energized from their bye week, pissed off that they’re losing, and have won their past 4 contests in the last 5 years coming off the bye week. Did I happen to mention that they are also the defending Super Bowl Champions? Well, they are and they’re not going out like that.

Here’s how I see the match-up this week…

Offense
This is our problem spot at the moment (along with deplorable – but not as bad as you may think – special teams). Right now Ben has the 2nd lowest QB rating in the league with only 34.3. He’s completing only 49.3% of his passes and none of the completed ones have been for touchdowns. He’s the only ranked QB to have this illustrious stat. This week he’ll face a tough San Diego defense with Shawne “Lights Out” Merriman coming right at him. The plus side of this equation is that our offensive line seems to be giving Ben nearly 10 minutes in the pocket to read the defense and throw the ball, after a semi-disappointing first week with Charlie Batch at the helm. What Ben needs to do is make things happen with his legs. This is not news to anyone who has been following Coach Cowher’s comments in the press; he wants to see Ben run more, too. Some of the best moments from last season were when Roethlisberger was flushed from the pocket and he took off. He needs to get over his gun-shyness and do the things he did last year. That also means getting the ball into the receiver’s hands. Now some of the passes that have been incomplete have literally thrown through the fingers of the receivers (remember Nate Washington in the end zone?). As a corps, I want to see Ben and the receivers out there getting extra practice time in together. They need to be able to be counted on to spell Fast Willie Parker, which they haven’t been able to do. Although Hines Ward does draw double coverage from every opponent, we have receivers with great hands in Cedric Wilson and Nate Washington, who in limited play last year proved he belonged on this team.

Also, despite a lackluster performance against a stingy Jaguars defense, Willie Parker has emerged as the fast back Pittsburgh has been missing. Granted, I loved the hard, bruising yards that Jerome Bettis constantly got for us, but Parker’s racehorse speed gives an added dimension to the offense. Now all he has to do is follow his lead blocker through San Diego’s big line and break for fast yards. However, he also needs to remember to look for holes that our line makes for him in the middle instead of trying to take it outside too quickly after getting the ball. It was movements such as this that kept our running game to a minimum against the Jags. Yet another weapon on our offense is 2nd year standout Heath Miller. Is it just me or does this guy get better every time he takes the field?

Although the Chargers are currently the number one defense in the league allowing an average of only 184.3 yards per game, I predict the offensive line will keep giving Ben the time he needs to get rid of the ball. This week will also mark the comeback of Big Ben as a threat on the field as he and the receiving corps begin to gel and make those necessary 3rd down completions, which will be key against a defense that is currently only allowing 22.9% of third down conversions. Plus we’ll see better decision-making, which means fighting off those costly turnovers. Fast Willie Parker will have over 85 yards against a hard San Diego defense. If he’s able to get over 100, all the better for us, but I’m going to put him just under the century mark for this week.

Defense
Since this is the Pittsburgh Steelers that we’re talking about, it should go without saying that the defense is great. Collectively, they have 11 sacks and 5 interceptions, but only two recovered fumbles although they made Carson Palmer look like he was being handed a hot potato at times. A little more awareness to go along with their disruptiveness would help, but first we need Troy Polamalu to be that disruptive force. Though we have been able to show up defensively the past two games and we rank number 11 only 3 games into the season, Rivers has been able to effectively carve up defenses. He even had Baltimore against the ropes until Steve McNair found his legs again. Of course, he was helped by star running back, LaDainian Tomlinson. LT’s carries helped put San Diego in prime position, but the player that concerns me is Lorenzo Neal. He’s the one who was able to break through the vaunted Ravens defense and convert the needed third downs. Right now our defense is allowing 34.9% of third down conversions or a little better than 1 for every 3 attempts. The defense can’t give up the third downs that they have so far.

Our secondary – which has been a glaring problem in past years – seems to be improved, although they did let TJ Houshmandzadeh get the best of them eventually in their last meeting with the Bengals. Our corners have two of our five interceptions and by my estimation, look to be in position nearly every time the ball comes near them. Although I may be wrong, I can’t remember very many instances when they’ve been flat out beat for speed. And I think Bryant McFadden will end up being a difference maker in nearly every game by the end of the year. Hopefully it will be this week against Antonio Gates who is averaging 12.2 yards per catch.

We also need Joey Porter to be louder. In the season opener, he showed flashes of greatness with his interception return for a touchdown and infiltrating the backfield. His presence was felt in Pittsburgh when we dashed Miami’s hopes of having a great season. Since then, his production has been held up by the opposing offense. Having Joey and Troy exert themselves on the field will be the difference in the defense this week. I think that these two ARE the defense and play off each other. Remember, Troy had an interception, too in that Miami game before Joey got one and returned it. With Troy back to feeling normal by all accounts – junk food and movie recuperation techniques notwithstanding – I think these guys will have a monster game.

Special Teams
What can I say about this unit? How about this… They’re not as bad as you think they are. Statistically on kick-offs, anyway. Michael Turner and Santonio Holmes are almost evenly matched averaging 21.8 yards and 22.2 yards per return. The Steelers as a unit are collectively getting 19.6 yards per return while opponents are getting 20.1 yards against us. Though the number of yards allowed isn’t where it should be, at least we are gouging the opponent for nearly the same amount each time we get the ball. People are asking about deactivating Sean Morey in favor of Willie Reid to beef up special teams. I don’t believe that is the answer. Morey has proven himself in the past to be a special teams monster. This week we need him to be in there to have a statement game to try and stop the opposing return team in their attempt to march down the field.

Unfortunately, this brings us to the punt return team. The Steelers are averaging a paltry 3.1 yards per return while opponents are getting 13.3 yards. We all know the reason and saw it live on Sunday morning last week. I don’t know the answer for this team. Ricardo Colclough isn’t it. In fact, I even questioned keeping him on the team before the season started. I’m still wondering…

Wrap-up
This week’s game will be a statement game, no matter how much the Steelers don’t want it to be. They knew going into this season that they had “bulls-eyes on their backs” to defend their title. The time off they just got should be the head-clearer that they needed to shake off two consecutive sub-par performances. I look for Ben to be more mobile, more accurate, and more “in” the game. Willie Parker will have a decent day, as will the defense, though their hands will be full. The biggest part of this game will be QB play: Pressure Rivers with a lot of different blitz packages while having Ben be the steady hand he has been in the past. In the end though, the Steelers win by 3. Another heart-pumping performance.

Borrowing a page from Peter King...
Other Football Thought of the Week
Though it’s still early in the season, if he continues to play the way he has this far, Chad Pennington should be the comeback player of the year. His stand against the Colts last week – minus the Cal-Stanford display at the end – was gutsy and potent.

Non-Football Thought of the Week
Watching Tiger Woods play golf is like watching an artist create. Watching Tiger Woods play golf when he’s at the top of his game is like watching Michelangelo paint. If I can’t watch the Steelers, I love to watch Tiger on the course.

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